Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast for 2025 (Part 3) Cherry blossom season is almost here! Over 30 locations to bloom by next week*
Press Release
Japan Weather Association (JWA) released its part 3 forecast for cherry blossoms and full bloom across 84 locations throughout Japan on Wednesday, March 19th, 2025.
◆Key points for the 2025 cherry blossom forecast (3rd edition)
- Based on the sample trees of the Local Meteorological Observatories, this year’s cherry blossoms season will start to bloom from Miyazaki on the 23rd of March, and Tokyo is expected to be the first location to reach full bloom on March 29th.
- In the week from the 24th, cherry blossoms are expected to bloom one after another spanning area from Kyushu to Kanto.
- Full bloom will be roughly around average in western Japan, and average or earlier in eastern and northern Japan.
*The information includes both sample trees from Japan Meteorological Agency’s Local Meteorological Observatories, and from independent observation locations of JWA.
The next cherry blossom forecast (4th) is scheduled for March 26, 2025.
In case of any extraordinary developments or updates to the forecast between the 20th and 25th of March, an updated forecast will be published on JWA’s weather forecasting media 【tenki.jp】, on their cherry blossom forecasting page.
For the most recent updates and information on the 2025 cherry blossom please visit the 【tenki.jp】 The Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast page: https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/ (Japanese only)
Cherry Blossom Forecast Map
2025 Blossoming Trend
For 2025, the cherry blossom is expected to bloom roughly in line with the yearly average or later in western Japan, while eastern and northern Japan will bloom closer to the average or earlier compared to normal years. The blooming season this year is expected to begin in Uwajima, Ehime Prefecture, on the 21st of March according to JWA’s own sample trees, though according to the Local Meteorological Observatory’s sample trees, Miyazaki will start off the cherry blossom season on the 23rd of March. By the end of March, the wider area from Kyushu to Kanto, and southern Tohoku will be in bloom, and many places in Nagano and Hokuriku will follow in early April. In mid-April, the cherry blossoms will have moved to northern Tohoku, and the cherry blossom front is expected to reach Hokkaido in late April.
2025 Full Bloom Trend
For the 2025 full bloom, it is expected to start roughly around the yearly average for western Japan, and closer to the average or earlier in eastern and northern Japan.
Tokyo is predicted to be the first location reaching full bloom on March 29th, and the areas from Kyushu to southern Tohoku will reach full bloom between late March to early April.
Northern Tohoku is expected to be in full bloom from mid to late April, and many areas in Hokkaido are expected to enjoy cherry blossoms in full bloom around the Golden Week holidays in the beginning of May.
Cherry Blossom Forecast Information
For more detailed information about JWA’s Cherry Blossom Forecast, please visit the link below.
https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/service/seasonal-news-cherry-blossom-forecast/
Cherry Blossom Season in Japan
For more detailed information on the cherry blossom forecast vocabulary and development, please visit the link below.
https://tenki.jp/sakura/english/160.html
[Description of words]
Normal: Average of 1991-2020
Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
Near normal: 1 or 2 days earlier or later than normal
Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal
Much later: 7 or more days later than normal
References Material
Frequently asked questions regarding cherry blossom forecast
Q1: What is the 2025 schedule for the cherry blossom forecasts releases?
A1: Here are the scheduled releases:
*English release approximately one day later. Schedule from April is yet to be determined.
Q2: What are the criteria for the flowering and full bloom dates?
A2: The criteria are the same as those used by Japan Meteorological Agency. The flowering period starts the first day when 5 to 6 or more flowers have started to bloom on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample trees), and the full bloom date is the first day when more than 80% of the buds have opened on the sample trees.
Q3: How many locations are expected?
A3: We announce forecasts for 84 locations nationwide. The forecast locations consist of 53 sample trees observed by each local meteorological observatory and 31 locations where observation data are obtained from cooperating agencies such as municipalities/local governments and parks.
Q4: What are the methods and characteristics of the Japan Weather Association’s cherry blossom forecast?
A 4: We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influence the growth process of the cherry blossom buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles. Japan Meteorological Association has been conducting cherry blossom forecasts since 2007, making this year the 19th year of our endeavour.
Q5: What data are utilised for forecasting cherry blossoms?
A5: The following data are used.
- Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
- Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts).
The temperature from the previous autumn to spring significantly influences the cherry blossoming period. Cherry buds form during the previous summer and then enter dormancy. Exposure to a certain period of low temperatures during winter breaks this dormancy, and the buds grow and bloom with rising temperatures. It is believed that higher temperatures promote faster bud growth and earlier blooming.
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