Japan Weather Association (JWA) released its part 1 forecast for cherry blossoms and full bloom for 53 locations throughout Japan on Thursday, January 29^th, 2026.

Cherry Blossom Forecast Map

Bloom Forecast Dates (Major Locations)

2026 Cherry Blossom Trends

For 2026, cherry blossom blooming is expected to be generally in line with the average in western Japan, near average to earlier in eastern Japan, and earlier than average in northern Japan.

This year’s cherry blossoms are expected to start blooming first in Fukuoka and Tokyo on March 21^st, for Kochi and Nagoya on the 22^nd, Hiroshima on the 24^th, and Osaka on the 25^th.
Then the cherry blossom front moves towards the Hokuriku region by the end of March, with flowers expected to bloom in Kanazawa on the 31^st.
Tohoku will welcome the cherry blossom season in April, with flowers blooming in Sendai on April 4^th and in Aomori on the 17^th. In Hokkaido, Sapporo, the blossom is expected to arrive on the 26^th of April, just before the Golden Week Holiday.

Around November, the buds of cherry blossoms enter a state of dormancy and awaken after being exposed to low temperatures for a certain period during the winter (breaking dormancy*). Though temperatures were high nationwide from December last year to mid-January this year, temperatures dropped sharply in late January. This may have caused a slight delay in the breaking of dormancy, but the process is believed to have progressed smoothly overall.

*Breaking dormancy: Flower buds that formed in the previous summer and entered dormancy awaken when exposed to low temperatures for a certain period during the winter.

 

Going forward, significant temperature fluctuations are expected in western and eastern Japan. While February temperatures are forecast to be near average, March temperatures are expected to be near or above average in western Japan, and above average in eastern Japan.
Consequently, the cherry blossom is expected to be generally near average in western Japan, and near to or earlier than average in eastern Japan.
In northern Japan, February temperatures are forecast to be near average, while temperatures from March to April are expected to be above average, leading to earlier-than-average cherry blossom blooming.

 

The cherry blossom and full bloom forecast for all 53 locations is available on tenki.jp, a weather forecast media site below operated by JWA.
https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/

Cherry Blossom Forecast
For more detailed information about JWA’s Cherry Blossom Forecast, please find the link below.
https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/service/seasonal-news-cherry-blossom-forecast/

【Description of words】
Normal: Average of 1991-2020

Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
Near normal: 1 or 2 days earlier or later than normal
Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal
Much later: 7 or more days later than normal

Reference material
Frequently asked questions regarding cherry blossom forecast

Q What is the schedule for the 2026 cherry blossom forecasts releases?

A

Here are the scheduled releases:

Part 1: January 29^th (Thursday)
Part 2: March 4^th (Wednesday)
Part 3: Mid-to-late March
Part 4: Early April
*The release schedule may change in the future.

Q What are the criteria for the blooming and full bloom dates?

A

The criteria are the same as those used by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The blooming date is defined as the first day when five to six or more flowers have opened on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample tree), and the full bloom date is the first day when more than 80% of the buds have opened on the sample trees.

Q How many locations are expected?

A

Forecasts are announced for 53 locations in January and February, and for approximately 80 locations nationwide from March onward. The forecast locations consist of 53 sample trees observed by local meteorological observatories and approximately 30 additional locations where observation data are obtained from cooperating organizations such as municipalities / local governments and parks.

Q What are the methods and characteristics of the Japan Weather Association’s cherry blossom forecast?

A

We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influence the growth process of the cherry blossom buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles. Japan Weather Association has been conducting cherry blossom forecasts since 2007, making this year the 20^th year of our endeavour.

Q What data are utilised for forecasting cherry blossoms?

A

The following data are used.

1. Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
2. Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts).

The temperature from the previous autumn to spring significantly influences the cherry blossoming period. Cherry buds form during the previous summer and then enter dormancy. Exposure to a certain period of low temperatures during winter breaks this dormancy, and the buds grow and bloom with rising temperatures. It is believed that higher temperatures promote faster bud growth and earlier blooming.

PDF DOWNLOAD：Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast for 2026 (Part 1)