2024, 2nd ~Autumn Foliage Peak Forecast~
Peak timing expected to delay nationwide
Some areas in northern Japan may see it earlier than last year
Press Release
Japan Weather Association (JWA) released the second Autumn Foliage Peak Forecast on October 2, 2024.
【Autumn Foliage Peak Forecast for Various Regions Across the Country】
In September, temperatures were significantly higher than average in eastern and western Japan. Northern Japan also experienced higher temperatures, but there were some periods in late September where they dropped below average. As a result, the autumn foliage has progressed smoothly, especially in the mountainous areas of northern Japan, with some locations already reaching their peak viewing period.
Looking ahead, temperatures in October are expected to remain high, but sunlight hours are likely to be reduced along the Pacific side of eastern and western Japan. As a result, there may be fewer days with significant temperature differences between day and night. In northern Japan and areas along the Sea of Japan, high pressure systems will bring more clear skies, leading to an increasing number of cold nights. In November, the Pacific side of eastern and western Japan will also see more sunny days, and there will be cold temperatures on some sunny mornings.
Considering these factors, the peak period for autumn foliage is expected to be later than usual in northern and eastern Japan, while in western Japan, it will either be on time or slightly delayed.
【The impact of this summer’s extreme heat and typhoons】
For autumn leaves to turn vibrant, several conditions are necessary: moderate heat, sunlight, and rainfall during summer, no damage to the leaves from strong typhoon winds, and in autumn, adequate sunlight and rainfall along with significant temperature differences between day and night.
This summer, Northern, Eastern, and Western Japan experienced record-high temperatures. In Western Japan, there was also a significant increase in sunlight duration, and there were some periods with little rainfall. When there is an excess of sunlight, plants can suffer from leaf burn, which raises concerns about potential damage to the leaves in the autumn foliage spots in Western Japan.
Additionally, Typhoons No. 5, No. 7, and No. 10 have approached or made landfall in Northern, Eastern, and Western Japan, bringing significant impacts. Notably, Typhoon No. 10 brought fierce winds, with some areas in Kyushu recording maximum instantaneous wind speeds exceeding 50 m/s. As a result, there are concerns about leaf damage in Kyushu and other areas. However, in many other regions, it is believed that there has been almost no impact from the typhoons as of now.
【Autumn Foliage Peak Forecast by Region】
■Northern Japan (Hokkaido and Tohoku)
The peak of autumn foliage is expected to be later than usual.
In September, temperatures were considerably high, but during the latter part of the month, there were periods when they fell below the average. As a result, in mountainous areas, the autumn foliage has progressed smoothly compared to last year, and some spots have already reached their peak. Going forward, temperatures are expected to remain high throughout October. Therefore, in foliage spots that will peak after mid-October, the coloring process is likely to progress more slowly.
In various locations, the autumn foliage is expected to peak as follows: in the Tokachidake Onsen area of Northern Hokkaido, it has already reached its peak; in Aomori Prefecture’s Hakkoda, it is anticipated to peak in early October; at Lake Shikotsu Onsen in Central Hokkaido, it is expected to peak in late October; and in Matsushima, Miyagi Prefecture, it is projected to reach its peak in late November.
■Eastern Japan (Kanto Koshin, Hokuriku, and Tokai)
The peak viewing period for autumn foliage is expected to be later than usual.
In September, temperatures remained significantly high, with the minimum temperature in mid-September being about 5°C higher than the average. This trend of higher-than-average temperatures is expected to continue into October, which will likely result in slower color changes across various locations.
The timing for autumn foliage in specific areas is as follows: in Tateyama Murodo-daira, Toyama Prefecture, it has already reached its peak; in Shiga Kogen, Nagano Prefecture, it is anticipated to peak in early October; and in Kuzuryu Gorge, Fukui Prefecture, along with Hakone Gora Park in Kanagawa Prefecture and Daitō-in in Shizuoka Prefecture, it is expected to peak in late November.
■Western Japan (Kinki, Chugoku/Shikoku, and Kyushu)
The peak viewing period for autumn foliage is expected to be around the same time or later than usual.
In September, temperatures remained significantly high, with the minimum temperature in mid-September being about 5°C higher than the average. This trend of higher-than-average temperatures is expected to continue into October, but when November comes, the high-temperature trend is anticipated to ease. Many areas in Western Japan are likely to be most affected by temperatures in November, so the areas where significant delays in peak viewing times will be few.
The timing for autumn foliage in specific areas is as follows: in Umpenji Temple, Tokushima Prefecture, and in Kyusuikei Valley in Oita Prefecture, it is expected to peak in late October; at Akizuki Castle Ruins in Fukuoka Prefecture, it is anticipated to peak in late November; and in Okayama Korakuen in Okayama Prefecture, it is expected to peak in early December.
【Peak Viewing Times at Major Spots】
【JWA’s Autumn Foliage Forecast】
For more information about JWA’s autumn foliage forecast, please refer to the link below:
https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/service/seasonal-news-autumn-foliage-forecast/
【Autumn Foliage Forecast by tenki.jp】 *Available in only Japanese.
Details of the “Best Viewing Forecast for Autumn Foliage in 2024” and information of nationwide autumn foliage spots other than the above major spots are available on “tenki.jp”.
https://tenki.jp/kouyou/expectation.html
The status updates on the coloring in various regions can be found on the links below.
PC: https://tenki.jp/kouyou/
Tablet / Smartphone: https://tenki.jp/lite/kouyou/
Unauthorized corporate use of this information (such as quoting in press releases or using for promotional purposes) is prohibited. If you are considering corporate use for product PR, please contact us via the inquiry form (https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/contact/).
Originally released in Japanese: 2024/10/2
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