Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast for 2024 (Part 2)
Blossoming earlier than usual in northern and eastern Japan with Tokyo Expected to start on the 21st
Press Release
Japan Weather Association (JWA) released its part 2 forecast for cherry blossoms and full bloom in 83 locations throughout Japan on March 13, 2024.
Trend of blossoming and full bloom
As March begins, temperatures across the country are generally lower than usual for this time of year. In the Tokyo area, snowfall was observed on March 8th for the first time in four years.
Starting from mid- to late March, there will be influences of cold air around the time of the vernal equinox. However, temperatures in many places are expected to be higher than usual for this period, and this trend is likely to continue into April and beyond. As a result, cherry blossom buds are anticipated to grow steadily, leading to blossoming and full bloom occurring earlier than usual nationwide.
This year’s cherry blossoms started in Sukumo, Kochi Prefecture on March 12th, and next Uwajima, Ehime Prefecture, is expected to bloom soon on the 15th. The sample trees at meteorological observatories are expected to bloom on the 20th in Fukuoka and Kochi, and on the 21st in Tokyo and Kyoto. By the end of March, cherry blossoms are expected to bloom over a wide area from Kyushu to Hokuriku.
By the end of March, cherry blossoms will be in bloom over a wider area from Kyushu to Hokuriku.
*The information for Uwajima and Sukumo are not from sample trees of the meteorological observatories, but from independent observation points of the Japan Weather Association.
In April, the cherry blossom front will advance further northward, with the cherry blossoms expected to bloom in Nagano on April 3rd, Akita on the 12th, and Aomori on the 18th. The front will reach Hokkaido in late April and will bloom in Sapporo on the 27th.
In addition, the cherry blossoms will be in full bloom in many places from Kyushu to Kanto by the end of March, starting with full bloom in Uwajima on March 24th, Kanazawa on April 4th, and Akita on April 16th.
Cherry blossom forecast map
Bloom forecast dates (Major locations)
The appearance of cherry blossom buds
The cherry blossom and full bloom forecast for all 83 locations is available on tenki.jp, a weather forecast media site below operated by JWA.
https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/
Cherry Blossom Forecast
For more detailed information about JWA’s Cherry Blossom Forecast, please find the link below.
https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/service/seasonal-news-cherry-blossom-forecast/
【Description of words】
Normal: Average of 1991-2020
Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
Near normal: 1 or 2 days earlier or later than normal
Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal
Much later: 7 or more days later than normal
Originally released in Japanese: 2024/3/13
Reference materials
Frequently asked questions regarding cherry blossom forecast
Q1: What are the criteria for the flowering and full bloom dates?
A1: The criteria are the same as those used by Japan Meteorological Agency. The flowering period starts the first day when 5 to 6 or more flowers have started to bloom on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample trees), and the full bloom date is the first day when more than 80% of the buds have opened on the sample trees.
Q2: How many locations are expected?
A2: We announced forecasts for 83 locations nationwide. The forecast locations consist of 53 sample trees observed by each local meteorological observatory and 30 locations where observation data are obtained from cooperating agencies such as municipalities/local governments and parks.
Q3: What are the methods and characteristics of the Japan Weather Association’s cherry blossom forecast?
A3: We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influence the growth process of cherry buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles. Japan Meteorological Association has been conducting cherry blossom forecasts since 2007, making this year the 18th year of our endeavor.
Q4: What data are used for forecasting cherry blossoms?
A4: The following data are used.
1. Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
2. Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts).
The temperature from the previous autumn to spring significantly influences the cherry blossoming period. Cherry buds form during the previous summer and then enter dormancy. Exposure to a certain period of low temperatures during winter breaks this dormancy, and the buds grow and bloom with rising temperatures. It is believed that higher temperatures promote faster bud growth and earlier blooming.
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