Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast for 2024 (Part 5)
Northern Japan to bloom earlier than normal, with Sapporo expected to bloom on the 24th
Press Release
Japan Weather Association (JWA) released its part 5 forecast for cherry blossoms and full bloom for various locations across Japan on Wednesday 3rd April 2024.
Cherry Blossom Forecast Map
Bloom Forecast Dates (Major Locations)
Trend of Blossoming and Full Bloom
Last weekend, temperatures exceeding 25°C brought early summer weather to various areas south of Kanto, advancing the cherry blossoms. As of 12:00 p.m. on April 3rd, reports of flowers blooming were received from 51 locations.
In Tokyo, cherry blossoms started on March 29th, which was 5 days later than usual and 15 days later than last year.
This delay is attributed to the return of cold weather just before blooming and the delayed breaking of dormancy. As a result, many areas across western and eastern Japan experienced cherry blossoms that were either average or later than average.
In addition, temperatures are expected to remain higher than normal in northern Japan. As a result, cherry blossom buds will grow smoothly, and both flowering and full bloom will occur earlier than normal in many places, with some areas experiencing considerably earlier blooms.
The cherry blossom front continues to move northward, with expectations for blooms in Akita on April 10th, followed by Aomori on the 16th. By late April, the front is projected to reach Hokkaido, with blooms expected in Sapporo around the 24th.
Furthermore, cherry blossom full bloom began in Uwajima*1, Ehime Prefecture on March 30th, and as of 12:00 p.m. on April 3rd, full bloom was reported at 10 locations. Moving forward, early April is expected to see a widespread full bloom rush from Kyushu to southern Tohoku, and there may be reports of full bloom in Hokkaido before the end of April.
*The information for Uwajima is not from sample trees of the meteorological observatories, but from independent observation points of JWA.
The Appearance of Cherry Blossom Buds
The cherry blossom and full bloom forecast for all 83 locations is available on tenki.jp, a weather forecast media site below operated by JWA.
https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/
Cherry Blossom Forecast
For more detailed information about JWA’s Cherry Blossom Forecast, please find the link below.
https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/service/seasonal-news-cherry-blossom-forecast/
【Description of words】
Normal: Average of 1991-2020
Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
Near normal: 1 or 2 days earlier or later than normal
Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal
Much later: 7 or more days later than normal
Originally released in Japanese: 2024/4/3
Reference material
Frequently asked questions regarding cherry blossom forecast
Q1: What are the criteria for the flowering and full bloom dates?
A1: The criteria are the same as those used by Japan Meteorological Agency. The flowering period starts the first day when 5 to 6 or more flowers have started to bloom on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample trees), and the full bloom date is the first day when more than 80% of the buds have opened on the sample trees.
Q2: How many locations are expected?
A2: We announced forecasts for 83 locations nationwide. The forecast locations consist of 53 sample trees observed by each local meteorological observatory and 30 locations where observation data are obtained from cooperating agencies such as municipalities/local governments and parks.
Q3: What are the methods and characteristics of the Japan Weather Association’s cherry blossom forecast?
A3: We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influence the growth process of cherry buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles. Japan Meteorological Association has been conducting cherry blossom forecasts since 2007, making this year the 18th year of our endeavor.
Q4: What data are used for forecasting cherry blossoms?
A4: The following data are used.
- Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
- Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts).
The temperature from the previous autumn to spring significantly influences the cherry blossoming period. Cherry buds form during the previous summer and then enter dormancy. Exposure to a certain period of low temperatures during winter breaks this dormancy, and the buds grow and bloom with rising temperatures. It is believed that higher temperatures promote faster bud growth and earlier blooming.
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