Japan Weather Association (JWA) released its part 3 forecast for cherry blossoms and full bloom for 84 locations throughout Japan on the 18^th of March.

Cherry Blossom Forecast Map

Blossoming & Full Bloom Forecast Dates (Major Locations)

Trend of Blossoming and Full Bloom

For this year’s Cherry Blossom season, the cherry blossom’s blooming and Full Bloom is expected to arrive around average or earlier than average in western Japan, and earlier than average in many areas of eastern and northern parts of Japan, with some areas from the Tokai region to Hokkaido expecting to see a significantly earlier blooming and Full Bloom than average.
The first blossoming was seen in Sukumo¹ on March 15^th, followed by the sample trees under observation by the local meteorological observatories in Kochi, Gifu and Kofu on the 16^th of March, and Nagoya on the 17^th. Looking ahead, the cherry blossoms are expected to bloom in Tokyo on the 19^th, Fukuoka and Hiroshima on the 21^st, Osaka on the 22^nd and Kanazawa on the 30^th of March, with the blooming front expected to move across the wider area from Kyushu region to the southern part Tohoku region by the end of March.
In April the blossoming is expected to arrive in Sendai on the 1^st, Niigata on the 2^nd, Aomori on the 15^th, and lastly likely to reach Sapporo on the 26^th.

The first location expected to reach Full Bloom is Gifu on March 23^rd, then Nagoya on the 24^th, followed by Tokyo and Kochi on the 25^th. Then the Full Bloom front is expected to reach across a wider area from the Kyushu region to the southern part of Tohoku region by early April. Northern Tohoku will reach Full Bloom from mid to late April, followed by many areas in Hokkaido being able to enjoy the Full Bloom during the Golden Week Holidays².
¹The information for Sukumo, Kochi Prefecture, is not from sample trees of the meteorological observatories, but from independent observation points of JWA.
²The 2026 Golden Week in Japan runs from April 29^th to May 6^th.

Basis of the Blossoming Predictions

Although there have been periods of colder weather since February, nationwide Japan has experienced higher temperatures than average, which has accelerated the cherry blossom buds’ development at a rapid pace.
Looking ahead, the temperatures are expected to stay higher than average nationwide until late March, and for eastern and northern Japan the temperatures are expected to be higher than earlier predicted. This means that at locations where flowering is approaching, flower buds’ development is progressing and as a result, the predicted flowering date has been moved up by about 1 to 3 days, and the predicted date for Full Bloom has been moved up by about a week at some locations. Temperatures in northern Japan are also expected to remain higher than average from April onward, which will encourage faster bud growth.

The cherry blossom and full bloom forecast for all 84 locations is available on tenki.jp, a weather forecast media site below operated by JWA.
https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/

Cherry Blossom Forecast
For more detailed information about JWA’s Cherry Blossom Forecast, please find the link below.
https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/service/seasonal-news-cherry-blossom-forecast/

 

【Description of words】
Normal: Average of 1991-2020

Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
Average: within two days of the normal date
Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal

Reference material
Frequently asked questions regarding cherry blossom forecast

Q What is the schedule for the 2026 cherry blossom forecasts releases?

A

Here are the scheduled releases:

Part 1: January 29^th (Thursday)
Part 2: March 4^th (Wednesday)
Part 3: March 18^th (Wednesday)
Part 4: Early April
*The release schedule may change in the future.

Q What are the criteria for the blooming and full bloom dates?

A

The criteria are the same as those used by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The blooming date is defined as the first day when five to six or more flowers have opened on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample tree), and the full bloom date is the first day when more than 80% of the buds have opened on the sample trees.

Q How many locations are expected?

A

Forecasts are announced for 53 locations in January and February, and for 84 locations nationwide from March onward. The forecast locations consist of 53 sample trees observed by local meteorological observatories and 31 additional locations where observation data are obtained from cooperating organizations such as municipalities / local governments and parks.

Q What are the methods and characteristics of the Japan Weather Association’s cherry blossom forecast?

A

We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influence the growth process of the cherry blossom buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles. Japan Weather Association has been conducting cherry blossom forecasts since 2007, making this year the 20^th year of our endeavour.

Q What data are utilised for forecasting cherry blossoms?

A

The following data are used.

1. Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
2. Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts).

The temperature from the previous autumn to spring significantly influences the cherry blossoming period. Cherry buds form during the previous summer and then enter dormancy. Exposure to a certain period of low temperatures during winter breaks this dormancy, and the buds grow and bloom with rising temperatures. It is believed that higher temperatures promote faster bud growth and earlier blooming.

PDF DOWNLOAD：Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast for 2026 (Part 3)