Price Forecasting（Electricity Market Price Forecasting）

Leveraging proprietary weather data and advanced artificial intelligence (AI) analytics, Japan Weather Association helps electricity businesses optimize their market transactions.

Price Forecasting (Electricity Market Price Forecasting) is a service that forecasts spot market trading prices (system price and area prices) on the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX), as well as supply-demand adjustment market prices (Tertiary Reserve Type 2) on the Electric Power Reserve Exchange (EPRX), and provides the forecast results online.

Electricity market prices and imbalance charges arising from supply-demand adjustment are critical factors that have a significant impact on the financial performance of electricity businesses. As the deployment of renewable energy expands and fuel prices fluctuate, price volatility risks in electricity markets have increased, leading to a growing demand for more accurate electricity market price forecasts.

Price Forecasting (Electricity Market Price Forecasting) consists of two services: Spot Market Price Forecasting and Supply-Demand Adjustment Market Price Forecasting.

List of "Price Forecasting (Electricity Market Price Forecasting)" Services

Spot Market Price Forecasting

Spot Market Price Forecasting is a service that forecasts spot market trading prices for delivery periods ranging from the next day up to a maximum of 31 days ahead, and provides the results via API and other online delivery methods.
By leveraging Japan Weather Association (JWA)’s proprietary weather forecast data, together with expertise in electricity demand forecasting and solar power generation output forecasting, the service provides highly accurate forecasts that reflect weather-driven price differences and daily price fluctuation trends.

Service details

The service is also available via ENeAPI, an API service for energy businesses.

Features

Highly Accurate Price Forecasts

Leveraging JWA’s proprietary weather forecast data and AI analytics, the service provides highly accurate electricity market price forecasts based on the relationship between weather conditions and market prices.

Support for a Wide Range of Forecast Periods

The service forecasts electricity market prices for delivery periods ranging from the next day up to 31 days ahead, supporting a wide range of decisions, from day-to-day market transactions to longer-term market strategies.

Flexible Data Integration

Data can be obtained in JSON/CSV format via API. Email delivery is also available, making the service easy to incorporate in customers’ daily operations. JWA has extensive integration experience with battery control and VPP (virtual power plant) optimization systems.

Extensive Track Record and Reliability

The service is trusted by a wide range of electricity businesses, including retail electricity providers and battery storage operators. With proven reliability and stable quality of service, it helps customers optimize market transactions and maximize revenue.

Applications

Formulation of power generation plans by power producers (maximize electricity sales revenue)
Review of power procurement plans by retail electricity providers (reduce procurement costs)
Advancing and optimizing market transactions in VPP businesses and demand response
Optimization of battery system charging and discharging plans and bidding strategies in the electricity market by grid-scale battery operators

Supply-Demand Adjustment Market Price Forecasting

Supply-Demand Adjustment Market Price Forecasting is a service that provides highly accurate next-day clearing price forecasts for Tertiary Reserve Type 2 in the supply-demand adjustment market at 30-minute intervals. Forecasts are delivered online via API and other methods. In addition to supply-demand adjustment market prices, spot market prices, and electricity demand, the service incorporates weather forecast data and uncertainty information related to forecast errors to deliver precise and refined forecasting.

Example forecast results for "Spot Market Price Forecasting" and "Supply-Demand Adjustment Market Price Forecasting"

Illustration of Electricity Trading through the Spot Market and the Supply-Demand Adjustment Market

Service details

The service is also available via ENeAPI, an API service for energy businesses. Support for Primary and Secondary Reserve Types 1 and 2, and Tertiary Reserve Type 1 will be added sequentially in the future.

Forecast Type	Next-day forecast
Forecast Period	Next-day delivery
Number of Releases	Twice daily (15:00 two days before the delivery date and 08:00 on the day before the delivery date)
Forecast target	Supply-demand adjustment market, Tertiary Reserve (Type 2) Highest/Average/Lowest Bid Price (yen/kW/30 minutes, 48-slot per day)
Delivery Method	Online distribution
Data Format	XML format

Features

Support for Tertiary Reserve Type 2

The service supports the “30-minute block bidding” system introduced in March 2025 and forecasts next-day clearing prices for Tertiary Reserve Type 2 in 30-minute intervals. Support for additional products including Primary Reserve, Primary Offline Reserve, Secondary Reserve Type 1, Secondary Reserve Type 2, and Tertiary Reserve Type 1 is planned in future releases. The service helps customers make informed bidding decisions and maximize revenue in the supply-demand adjustment market.

Refined Price Forecasts Backed by Renewable Energy Expertise

In addition to Japan Weather Association’s proprietary weather forecast data and AI analytics, the service leverages expertise developed through electricity demand forecasting and solar power generation forecasting to deliver refined price forecasts that account for the impacts of renewable energy and fluctuations in electricity supply-demand.

Applications

Decision-making by energy-related businesses when selecting target electricity markets
Maximization of electricity sales revenue from grid-scale batteries by storage operators
Formulation and monetization of power sales plans by resource aggregators
Assessment of power sales profitability by electricity trading businesses