Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast for 2025 (Part 1)
Blossoming from Kyushu to Kanto from late March.
Full bloom expected to be earlier than average in Kanto and northwards.
Press Release2025.03.05

Japan Weather Association (JWA) released its part 1 forecast for cherry blossoms and full bloom for 83 locations throughout Japan on Wednesday, March 5^th, 2025.

◆Key points for the 2025 cherry blossom forecast (1st edition)

– The 2025 cherry blossom is expected to start from March 20^th in Uwajima, Ehime Prefecture and Sukumo, Kochi Prefecture*.
– The trees are expected start blooming for the wider area from Kyushu to Kanto by the end of March.
– This year’s cherry blossom will blossom and reach full bloom approximately according to the yearly average in western Japan, and close to or earlier than the yearly average in eastern and northern Japan.

* The information for Uwajima and Sukumo is not from sample trees of the meteorological observatories, but from independent observation points of JWA.

 

The next cherry blossom forecast (2^nd) is scheduled for March 12, 2025.

In case of any extraordinary developments or updates to the forecast between the 6^th and 12^th of March, an updated forecast will be published on JWA’s weather forecasting media tenki.jp’s cherry blossom forecasting page.

The most recent updates and information on the 2025 cherry blossom can be found on tenki.jp, The Cherry Blossom and Full Bloom Forecast:  https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/ (Japanese only)

Cherry Blossom Forecast Map

2025 Blossoming Trend

For 2025, the cherry blossom’s blooming is expected to roughly follow the yearly average blooming period in western Japan, while eastern and northern Japan will bloom closer to the average or earlier compared to normal years.

This year’s blossoming season is expected to start in Uwajima, Ehime Prefecture and Sukumo, Kochi Prefecture. For the sample trees in Tokyo, the blooming is expected to start from the 22^nd of March, on the 23^rd for Fukuoka, the 25^th in Nagoya, and the 26^th in Osaka.

The wider area from Kyushu to Kanto is expected to be in bloom by the end of March.

2025 Full Bloom Trend

For the 2025 full bloom, it is expected to start roughly around the yearly average for western Japan, and close to the average or earlier in eastern and northern Japan compared to the trends of normal years.

The wider area from Kyushu to southern Tohoku is expected to see a full bloom from the end of March to early April. Then from northern Tohoku, cherry blossoms will be in full bloom from mid to late April, while for parts of Hokkaido, the cherry blossom’s full bloom is expected to land around the Golden Week holidays in the beginning of May.

 

Cherry Blossom Forecast Information
For more detailed information about JWA’s Cherry Blossom Forecast, please visit the link below.
https://www.jwa.or.jp/english/service/seasonal-news-cherry-blossom-forecast/

 

Cherry Blossom Season in Japan
For more detailed information on the cherry blossom forecast vocabulary and creation, please visit the link below.
https://tenki.jp/sakura/english/160.html

 

[Description of words]
Normal: Average of 1991-2020
Much earlier: 7 or more days earlier than normal
Earlier: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
Near normal: 1 or 2 days earlier or later than normal
Later: 3 to 6 days later than normal
Much later: 7 or more days later than normal

References Material
Frequently asked questions regarding cherry blossom forecast

Q1: What is the 2025 schedule for the cherry blossom forecasts releases?

A1: Here are the scheduled releases:

Q2: What are the criteria for the flowering and full bloom dates?

A2: The criteria are the same as those used by Japan Meteorological Agency. The flowering period starts the first day when 5 to 6 or more flowers have started to bloom on the designated observation tree (i.e. sample trees), and the full bloom date is the first day when more than 80% of the buds have opened on the sample trees.

 

Q3: How many locations are expected?

A3: We announce forecasts for 84 locations nationwide. The forecast locations consist of 53 sample trees observed by each local meteorological observatory and 31 locations where observation data are obtained from cooperating agencies such as municipalities/local governments and parks.

 

Q4: What are the methods and characteristics of the Japan Weather Association’s cherry blossom forecast?

A 4: We use our proprietary forecasting model that focuses on the temperature trends from autumn onwards, which significantly influence the growth process of the cherry blossom buds. Our forecasts are based on accurate observation data from sample trees at local meteorological observatories and cooperating agencies, emphasizing meteorological principles. Japan Meteorological Association has been conducting cherry blossom forecasts since 2007, making this year the 19^th year of our endeavour.

 

Q5: What data are utilised for forecasting cherry blossoms?

A5: The following data are used.

1. Temperature observation data from the previous autumn to the forecast date
2. Temperature forecast data from the forecast date to the blooming period (from Japan Weather Association’s point forecasts and long-term forecasts).

The temperature from the previous autumn to spring significantly influences the cherry blossoming period. Cherry buds form during the previous summer and then enter dormancy. Exposure to a certain period of low temperatures during winter breaks this dormancy, and the buds grow and bloom with rising temperatures. It is believed that higher temperatures promote faster bud growth and earlier blooming.

 

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